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Guo Shiliang: Who is the biggest credit for the Shanghai index to create a new high of more than 7 months?
A medium-long line has triggered the money-making effect of the short-term market. However, just last week, the market has been a bit sloppy, and the stock market rose on August 15th, which made the Shanghai stock index hit a new seven-month high.
3137.48 points, this is another new high position for the market to refresh. At the same time, we can find that behind this long-yang line, it has actually brought several driving effects to the market.
Among them, the Shanghai index broke through the annual position, but the late end failed to stand firm above the annual line position, but this is also the performance of the first offensive year in the year. However, for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, it is the first place to stand above the annual line position, which has an unusual meaning.
In addition, after several days of continuous shrinking operation, the stock market on August 15 finally showed signs of heavy volume. At the close, the combined transaction volume of the two cities can exceed 740 billion yuan, which is a relatively large amount of heavy performance.
In addition, Vanke A 000002, rapidly pulled up buying led by heavyweight create favorable conditions for the market to force a breakthrough. At the same time, the rise of hotspot weights such as banks, brokerages, insurance, etc., has provided a more sufficient driving force for the accelerated breakthrough of the market.
After more than eight months, the A-share market once again touched the position of the annual line, which really has an unusual meaning. However, for investors, the market returns to the top of the annual line, which often means that the stock market returns to the boundary between the bull and the bear, and once the market achieves effective stability, it means that the stock market has “weak from strong to strongâ€. trend.
However, for the market that has just experienced “de-leveraging†and “de-foamingâ€, the probability of re-pursuing stock market funds to increase leverage is not high, and the external stock market has a new high for the stock market to break the long-short stalemate. The impact is also stimulated by external drivers such as the opening of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the expansion of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. However, for the re-strength of the stock market, it is often the superposition of multiple factors, and the effect of the stock market to make money has warmed up, but it has quickly increased the investment enthusiasm of short-term market investors.
The opening of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect is likely to make it easy for investors to recall the market performance two years ago.
Looking back at the market of the year, after the announcement of the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the market gradually stepped out of the mid- and long-term outsole position, and with the smooth “opening-up†incident of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in November 14th, it triggered the stock market to go. The phenomenon of cattle. Affected by this, the long-lost leveraged funds have been active, and the off-site leverage tools have also emerged. At the same time, along with the various funds, the pace of the stock market has accelerated.
Nowadays, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect is opening soon. Some of the funds seem to have the expectation of the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in the past. Combined with the continued good performance of the external stock market, this has more or less stimulated the staged enthusiasm of some funds.
It is worth mentioning that the pace of insurance investment and even the placard continues to accelerate, and the recent launch of the Vanke A-share in Baoneng Evergrande has triggered the sharp rise of Vanke A's share price and created 8 years. new highs. However, with the continued surge in the weighted stocks and blue-chip stocks led by China Vanke A-Shares, it has brought huge profits to the insurance institutions that have previously invested in the stock market, and the insurance institutions that have adopted a relatively aggressive strategy have finally obtained A considerable return.
The Shanghai index has hit a new high of more than 7 months and is indeed a landmark event. At the same time, as the stock market rises again, it actually reflects the true portrayal of “the stock market does not lack funds and lacks investment confidenceâ€. Perhaps, in the face of the current phenomenon of “more private funds and less investment channelsâ€, the activation of the stock market may bring some way out for some private funds.
However, after experiencing the impact of the previous stock market turmoil, investors also need to keep in mind the lessons learned from the stock market turmoil at the time, in the process of accelerating the stock market, try to do as much as possible, and take advantage of the stage to make profitable opportunities. Don't be willing to increase the leverage ratio and increase the risk of gambling.
Pi Haizhou: How does Wang Baoqiang's divorce affect the stock market?
Overnight, Wang Baoqiang’s message of divorce was swiped. On the Sunday of August 14th, in the days when the Chinese Legion Olympics had no gold medals, the news of Wang Baoqiang’s divorce was pressing the Olympic news in the fierce battle, becoming the topic that the Chinese people talked the most, and the circle of friends was swept by this news. It is.
The imaginative segmenters and gossip masters seem to see investment opportunities in the stock market from Wang Baoqiang's divorce. Although no one mentioned the impact of Wang Baoqiang's divorce on the stock market, the investment opportunities brought by Wang Baoqiang's divorce to individual stocks were excavated by the players.
According to the analysis, considering that Wang Baoqiang's wife, Ma Rong, has benefited more from this matter, he has obtained more than expected popularity in the short term. Therefore, investors are advised to buy Rongsheng Supermicro 002141 and buy it . Also due to the rising popularity Ma Rong, a better business environment, we recommend investors to the environment 000 598 Xing Rong, buy also pay close attention. Also, because Baoqiang in a weak position victim in this matter, so give Po-precision neutral rating, but red walls give 002,809 shares, buying highly recommended. And suggested that Baosteel and Shenzhen Huaqiang 000062, buy should also pay attention.
Not only that, because Ma Rong and the agent Song Wei have derailed behavior, and even the market has uploaded a tongue twister: the baby does not know whether the baby's baby is the baby's own baby, why should the baby's baby treat the baby like this! The baby is most worried about the baby's baby is not the baby's baby, if the baby's baby is not the baby's baby, it really scares the baby. Therefore, the analysis also included the genetic testing section into the category of "Wang Baoqiang divorce concept stocks", recommending people to pay attention to the new open source 300109, buy , Anke Bio 300009, buy , the subject is DNA paternity identification.
Do investors want to buy these “Wang Baoqiang divorce concept stocks†based on these analyses? This is undoubtedly the most important thing for investors. In my opinion, these analyses are mostly in the form of gossip, which is basically entertaining. The so-called analysis is either unreliable or a fuss. For example, what is the relationship between Rongsheng Supermicro and Xingrong Environment and Wang Baoqiang’s wife, Ma Rong? Just because there is a "Rong" word? The same is Baoqiang Precision, Baosteel and Shenzhen Huaqiang. In fact, Baoqiang Precision is a stock in the new three board market, and the red wall shares have not been listed, Baosteel is also suspended. Therefore, most of these analyses are not reliable.
As for the concept of genetic testing, although in the case of Wang Baoqiang's divorce, "the baby is most worried about the baby's baby is not the baby's baby", so the possibility of DNA paternity testing is not ruled out. Even so, even if Wang Baoqiang gave his two children a DNA paternity test, it would give new open source, and the benefits of Anke Bio could be negligible. As for how many people will take their children to do paternity tests because of Wang Baoqiang’s divorce, the number is also very small. Therefore, in the case of Wang Baoqiang's divorce, he was associated with genetic testing. Although this association is reasonable, the actual income is diminished. So in general, "Wang Baoqiang divorce concept stocks" is not reliable.
Even so, this does not rule out the market's short-term speculation on "Wang Baoqiang's divorce concept stocks." After all, the A-share market was originally a speculative market, and the speculation on various concept stocks was originally unreasonable. For example, Homa 002,668, to buy just because Obama came to power, once touted by the market. As for Valentine's Day, it is to let the Oriental Hotel, I miss you 002,582, buy, Bunny 002,043, to buy other stocks subject to speculation. What is even more suspense is the marriage effect of Faye Wong. Every marriage of Faye Wong will bring a wave of bull market, even if the rumor of the third marriage of Faye Wong and Nicholas Tse in the second half of 2014, it also triggered a round of mad cow market. Even investors hope that Faye Wong will get married several times and bring more rounds of bull market.
Including the "Ding Crab Effect" of Zheng Shaoqiu's film and television, which is also circulated in Hong Kong's stock market, "the Ding Crab comes out, the stock market rushes", and the golden rule in the eyes of Hong Kong shareholders is widely spread. In fact, all of this is basically unreliable, but it is these unreliable things that seem to be the true meaning of the stock market, so that investors can not believe it, or let investors "believe that they have, not credible It has no." In particular, the "Ding Crab Effect" is even more so that investors in the Hong Kong stock market can talk about it.
Therefore, returning to the "Wang Baoqiang divorce concept stocks", although this "Wang Baoqiang divorce concept stocks" is somewhat unreliable, but the market is really speculative, it is not impossible. Just as an investor, don't have too much hope, and don't chase after buying. After all, this kind of hype is just a matter of borrowing the title, lacking substantive content as a support. Therefore, the promotion of “Wang Baoqiang’s divorce concept stocks†is an opportunity for investors to take profits in the short-term.
Du Kunwei: Why the world's investment giants sell their assets and increase their holdings of cash – a review of the views of foreign institutions
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway company held a record high of $72.7 billion at the end of the second quarter of this year, setting a record high. This figure is 1% more than Hathaway’s end of last year, compared with three months ago. The $58.3 billion rose sharply. It’s just the insurance department of Berkshire Hathaway, which is worth $61.8 billion in cash. Buffett’s big cash holdings go back to the subprime crisis. With a lot of cash, Buffett became the best beneficiary of the subprime crisis. Not only is Buffett holding a lot of cash, but the world's other rich people also hoard a lot of cash. According to the wealthy agency Wealth-X released the "Billionaire Census", 2,473 rich people in the world are holding 22.2% of their net assets. This 2,473 for the assets of more than $1 billion super-rich total assets of more than 7.7 trillion US dollars converted to the global rich now holding more than 1.7 trillion US dollars in cash, the highest level since the record in 2010. This is highly consistent with Goldman's expectations, and Goldman Sachs also said in the report that it maintains a “neutral†view of the stock market over the next 12 months and maintains an “overweight†view on cash. I don't know if Goldman Sachs is correct, or Goldman Sachs sees that the global rich will increase their cash holdings to make predictions, or it is a kind of tacit agreement between the two.
What the author wants to explore is why the super rich are hoarding cash? After combining the views of world-renowned research institutions and market amnesons, the author believes that it is because they believe that economic and global risks are increasing.
According to foreign media reports, first of all, terrorist attacks have risen. Japan, the United States, Europe, and Asia have all become targets of terrorist attacks, which has caused billionaires to shrink their fronts. The US election is full of variables, and Italy holds a referendum. It is another black swan. Citi believes that This is probably the biggest political risk in Europe this year except for the UK.
Secondly, price overvaluation and economic uncertainty factors also allow investors to increase their holdings of cash to sell assets. Wealth-X said in the report: “The economic uncertainty and asset prices have reached record highs, making the global tycoons more inclined to cash Assets, holding more cash."
Economic uncertainty is certain, Japan’s Abenomics has proved that it has no effect, and loose monetary policy is widely questioned, that is, Abe’s high-profile pensions are also a huge loss. Abe participated in the world economy in Davos, Switzerland in January 2014. At the annual meeting of the forum, it said that it will change the asset mix of pension funds, "as a contribution to stimulating economic growth investment." The result is very sad. According to Xinhua News Agency, the Japanese pension fund management agency announced the financial year 2015 pension fund management report, showing losses. Up to 5.31 trillion yen (about 51.2 billion US dollars), the biggest deficit since the financial crisis, the Brexit also caused a rare economic crisis in the UK, Bank of England Governor Carney believes that more and more evidence that Brexit has led to Delays in investment, more and more evidence shows that the economy is slowing down, the Bank of England continues to increase monetary easing policy, resulting in no government bonds can be purchased, loose monetary policy has become useless. The European banking industry is even more afflicted with diseases, and it always shakes the market. According to the results of the European Bank stress test released last week, the bad debt rate of the Italian banking industry remains high, and non-performing assets account for one-third of the total non-performing assets of the euro zone banking industry. Bank Deutsche Bank is even more innovative.
The European economy is also trapped in a low growth trap. The final value of the service sector PMI in the Eurozone in June was 52.8, a new low since January 2015, with an expected 52.4, an initial value of 52.4; and a final value of 53.3 in May. The US economy is good and bad, like a monkey jumping up and down. The US GDP growth rate in July was only 1.2%, which made the market worry that the US economic recovery was weak, and the US economy worried further. The US consumer spending in June increased by 0.4% from the previous month, increasing for three consecutive months, but this mainly benefited from the reduction in savings. Since personal income has not increased, this is equivalent to the increase in income of residents rather than income. In the auto industry, one of the pillars of the US economy, sales in July fell short of expectations, and GM's sales fell 2% to 26,725,88 units, which is at the lower end of analysts' expectations. GM tops the US car sales market, while Ford Motors, which ranks second, said its July sales also fell 3% to 21,6,479, lower than analysts had expected, directly hitting auto company stocks. .
Asset prices are even more worrying. After the European and American stock markets hit new highs, market differences have increased. The stock market may be more vulnerable in the face of disappointment. Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst of Lindsay Group, said that Japan is The disappointing economic stimulus plan not only put pressure on the Asian stock market, but also conveyed a message that central banks have reached the limit in “taming†the stock market. The implication is that monetary easing has stimulated the stock market bubble to come to an end.
Goldman Sachs believes that China’s economic growth is driven by stimulus measures, global policy uncertainty (especially in Europe), the Fed’s moderate interest rate hike expectations and the uncertainty of the US election, as well as accidents (such as the recent Turkish Concerned about the impact of the coup d’état, and believe that stocks are now “very expensive, and the income has barely increasedâ€, saying that “the stock market is still at the upper limit of the wide flat range and is now close to the apex.†So the strategy will be three. The stocks in the monthly asset allocation are reduced to lighten up, and the cash is maintained “overweightâ€. . US stocks are likely to fall by 10% in the next three months. Before the economic growth pattern improves, it is not recommended to increase stocks, especially after this round of stock market rise. Goldman's latest research report extends the bearish coverage to global stock markets. According to the report, due to the high valuation and unstable political environment, the stock market returns in the next three months in the US, Europe, Asia and Japan are expected to be -10%, -11%, -3% and -6%, respectively. The strategy is correspondingly lowered to "sell". Not only does Goldman Sachs believe that the US stock market is overvalued, James ABA te, chief investment officer of Centre Asset Manament, said: “The stock market has risen to such a level that I am stunned. I think the current stock market value is at least overestimated. 30%. More importantly, Abbott said that the US company's financial report has basically proved that the profit growth rate is about -3%, and revenue growth is weak. According to historical statistics, S&P Global Market Intelligence said that historically, the stock market performance in August and September is generally not very good; since World War II, the S&P 500 index is here. The monthly increase for two months is the lowest.
The same view as Goldman Sachs bearish stock market has been the result of many times accurately predicting the financial crisis and is good at using the market bubble market to gain the profit of Dr. Mai Jiahua, who believes that the current upward movement of US stocks is not from buying, but relying on Share repurchase, company mergers and so on. In addition, despite the recent record highs in US stocks, it is rare for individual stocks to hit record highs. Therefore, the upward momentum is difficult to continue, and the S&P 500 index is likely to fall to 1100 points. In other words, US stocks will face a decline of more than 50%, which means that the cumulative increase in the past five years will be ruined. It’s true that the words are not amazing!
Amazingly, "New Debt King" Jeffrey Gundlach felt that he should sell everything, and Gros thought that considering the zero interest rate, put money into physical assets and accept lower investment. In return, “Commodity King†Rogers declared that “in the past 15 years, we have experienced two 50% stock market crashes. Why can’t we have a third time? If the stock market is halfway down, why not fall 75%? The answer is yes, and it will eventually appear.†Citigroup said in a report released on August 4 that investors are not recommended to continue investing in US stocks.
Of course, there are market pessimistic forecasts and opinions. There are also few optimistic forecasts in the market. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, believes the Dow’s “1 year target†has risen to 20003.93. This means that the Dow has a 7.9% upside potential, and the S&P 500's 1-year target price is 2380.68, suggesting that there is still a 9.1% upside from Tuesday's closing.
The author's summary analysis of foreign media views is not to predict the trend of domestic and international asset prices, but whether China's stock market trend will be dragged down. Although China's stock market is relatively closed, it is also opening up, and it is impossible to be indifferent to foreign trends. Historically, it is not the same as falling, and the pressure on domestic new stocks has increased. The pressure to reduce holdings is hard to ease. The wounds of investors have not healed. In the face of the vast majority of investment masters in the world, they are holding cash and holding cash. Excessive superstition, such as the big bull market, is not a big mistake. (Du Kunwei)
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