Huitong.com May 1st - The EU has adopted the Brexit negotiations and is ready to launch firm and fair negotiations. The amount of "single bill" for Brexit is between 40 billion and 60 billion euros. US President Trump signed two trade executive orders on April 29, decided to establish the White House Trade and Manufacturing Policy Office, and conduct a comprehensive review of all existing US trade agreements.
In the week of May 1-7, the Fed will announce the interest rate resolution, and the US government will temporarily escape the stagnation. The US non-agricultural data for April will also be released as scheduled. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve will announce a new interest rate resolution and monetary policy statement. The French presidential election will hold a second round of voting and a new president will be elected on the weekend. 
Market hotspots this week include:
Monday (May 1st): US final Markit manufacturing PMI final value in April, US March PCE price index annual rate.
Tuesday (May 2): China's April fiscal new manufacturing PMI, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced interest rate resolution.
On Wednesday (May 3), the euro zone's first quarterly adjusted GDP annual rate, the US ADP employment in April, French presidential independent candidate Mark Hong and the far right presidential candidate Le Pen held a television debate.
Thursday (May 4th): The Federal Reserve announced the May interest rate resolution and issued a monetary policy statement.
Friday (May 5): Changes in non-agricultural employment in the US in April, unemployment rate in April in the United States, unemployment rate in April in Canada, and ECB President Draghi delivered a speech at an awards ceremony.
Weekend (May 6 or 7): China's May foreign exchange reserves.
Sunday (May 7): The French presidential election held a second round of voting. The middle school candidate Emmanuel Macron and the far right candidate, Marine Le Pen, were elected directly to the president.
In terms of holidays, stock markets in China, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and other countries closed on May 1 (Monday). Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, the stock market closed on May 3 (Wednesday). Japan’s stock market closed on May 4th (Thursday). Japan, South Korea May 5 (Friday) stock market closed for one day.
Monday opening market:
This week, the foreign exchange market opened in an orderly manner, and failed to show a clear gap like last week (after the first round of voting in the French election). As of press time, the US dollar index fell slightly by 0.1%, now reported 94.95; the euro rose slightly to 1.0909, up 0.13%; the pound fell against the dollar by 22 points to 1.2930; the dollar against the yen fell to 111.18, now At 111.23, it fell 0.23%.
In the precious metals sector, due to the fall in the US dollar index, spot gold rose by about 2.6 US dollars after the opening, and the highest touched 1271.27 US dollars / ounce, first before the 1270 US dollars / ounce integer close, reported 1271.01 US dollars / ounce. Spot silver is now at $17.26 per ounce, up 0.24% on the day.
In the case of crude oil, there was a low opening and lowering. The US WTI crude oil futures contract is now reported at $49.17 per barrel, down 0.32%; the Brent crude July futures contract is now at $51.86 per barrel, down 0.37%.
Last week's review:
1. [Trump announced the "most powerful" tax reform plan in history, reducing corporate tax to 15%]
On April 26th, US President Trump announced the "most powerful" tax reform plan, which lowered the corporate tax to 15%, and the personal income tax rate was reduced to three grades: 10%, 25%, and 35%; The biggest problem with the program is that it does not answer how to reduce the deficit, maintain the tax neutrality, and ultimately make the bill pass the Congressional approval.
2. [The US government temporarily avoided closing the door, but the alarm has not been lifted]
The US House of Representatives and the Senate passed the provisional appropriations bill on Friday (April 28), allowing the US government to continue to receive financing until May 5, avoiding the embarrassing situation of President Trump facing the government's closure in the first 100 days. However, in the following week, the US House and Senate will continue to discuss whether to pass the $1 trillion budget appropriation, so that the US federal government can continue to operate until September 30. If the discussion fails, the US federal government will repeat the same mistakes that were forced to close in 2013.
3, [The first round of the French election, Mark Hong won, the black swan will not fly out]
The middle school candidate Mark Hong won the first round of voting and will face the far right candidate Le Pen in the final round of the May 7th round. Mark Hong’s victory made him the leader of the second round of voting next month. Although Le Pen entered the second round, it is widely expected that in the second round of the May 7 election, Mark Hong can easily beat.
4, [European central bank continues to stand still, Draghi firmly "loose pigeons"]
On April 27th, the European Central Bank kept the interest rate decision unchanged and began to reduce the size of QE. Draghi stressed that the European Central Bank did not discuss withdrawing from the stimulus policy. Although inflation has risen, the potential pressure is still suppressed. He believes that the economic recovery in the euro zone is hindered by the sluggish reforms, but as countries enter the election cycle, they will be structurally reformed. The push has weakened.
5. [Japan maintains monetary policy unchanged, and the economic view is the most optimistic in nine years]
The Bank of Japan’s April meeting kept monetary policy unchanged, and the view on the economy was the most optimistic in nine years, indicating that it is confident that overseas demand growth will help maintain an export-led economic recovery.
6. [Japan data "big gift package" is released, the economy shows a recovery trend]
On the 28th, Japan released a series of economic data, including CPI, inflation rate, unemployment rate, retail data and industrial output. Inflation increased for the third consecutive month, labor demand was the strongest since 1990, and retail sales were better than expected, suggesting that the Japanese economy began to show signs of recovery.
7, [North American trade agreement temporarily escaped a robbery]
On April 27, the White House said that US President Trump had a conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Mexican President Nieto. Trump agreed not to terminate the North American trade agreement, and the leaders agreed to facilitate the renegotiation of the North American trade agreement. After the announcement of the suspension of this agreement, the market’s concerns about the failure of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have been met, and the fear of a trade war triggered by the US’s possible anti-dumping duty of 20% on softwood imports from Canada will be alleviated. .
[List of major global markets]
★Stock market
1. On Friday, the Chinese stock market's Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower on Friday, rising for four days. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.08%, with a weekly decline of 0.58%. The Growth Enterprise Index closed up 0.42% to 1850.73.
2. Hong Kong's main stock indexes are off the 20-month high. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.3% to 24,615.13, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.4% to 10,219.89. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.4% last week and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.8%.
3. The US stock market closed slightly lower on Friday. The data released earlier showed that the economic growth rate in the first quarter of the United States was the slowest in the past three years, which provided a reason for traders to lock in recent profits. However, the main stock index rose in April and the Nasdaq index rose for the sixth consecutive month, the longest gain in the past four years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 40.82 points, or 0.19%, to 20,940.51 points on Friday; the S&P 500 index fell 4.57 points, or 0.19%, to 2,384.20 points; the Nasdaq index fell 1.33 points, or 0.02%, to 6047.61 points. point. Last week, the Dow rose 1.9%, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.3%. In April, the three major stock indexes rose 1.3%, 0.9% and 2.3% respectively.
4. European stock markets were dragged down by investors' profit-taking, but last week's performance was the best in December last year. Due to political concerns, brokers expected the company's profitable growth to support the stock market valuation. The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.2% on Friday, at 387.09 points, but the weekly line closed up 2.5%, the strongest week in December last year, as the first round of voting in the French election was favorable to the market, new funds Influx into the stock market in the region.
★ futures
1. On Friday, WTI June crude oil futures closed up 0.36 US dollars, or 0.74%, to 49.33 US dollars / barrel, and fell more than 8% from the April high. Brent July crude oil futures closed up 0.29 US dollars, or 0.56%, to 51.73 US dollars / ton, crude oil is about 9% lower than the April high.
2. On Friday, COMEX June gold futures closed up 2.40 US dollars, up 0.2%, to 1268.30 US dollars / ounce, the cumulative closing down 16.70 US dollars, a decline of 1.3%.
3. On Friday, domestic commodity commodity futures closed generally higher on Friday: iron ore closed up 4.51%, hitting a two-week high of 521 yuan/ton; rebar closed up 4.36%, hitting a three-week high To 3,116 yuan / ton; hot volume closed up 3.96%, a three-week high of 3,151 yuan / ton; coking coal closed up 2.41%, closing at 1,127 yuan / ton; coke closed up 2.84%, closing at 1,629 yuan / ton.
4. London's base metals closed mostly higher on Friday. The LME three-month copper final purchase price rose 0.4% to $5,713 per tonne, reversing the previous trading day's decline. Three-month lead closed 2% higher at $2,249 a tonne, the highest since April 18. Three-month nickel closed up 1.2% at $9,450 a tonne, hitting a two-week high. Nick earlier fell to a 10-month low earlier this week. Three-month aluminum closed down 0.6% at $1,911.50 a tonne, close to the nearly 27-month high reached in March, as LME inventories were at their lowest level since 2008. Three-month tin rose 0.3% to $19,900 a tonne. Three-month zinc closed up 1% to $2,623 a tonne.
★Forex
1. On Friday, the onshore RMB against the US dollar closed slightly on the spot, and the central price continued to fall and refreshed a two-week low.
2. Sterling against the US dollar hit the highest level since the end of September last year, getting rid of the impact of the sharp slowdown in UK economic growth.
3. The US dollar against the Canadian dollar hit a new high of 1.3675 over the previous year due to poor GDP data in Canada and Trump's claim to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement.
[International Financial Information]
1. On April 27th, ECB President Draghi delivered a speech, stressing that the European Central Bank did not discuss withdrawing from the stimulus policy. Although inflation has risen, the potential pressure is still suppressed. He believes that the economic recovery in the Eurozone is hindered by the sluggish reform. However, as countries enter the electoral cycle, the promotion of structural reforms has weakened. However, the European Central Bank has not made decisions based on possible election results, and the European Bank will not respond to political uncertainty itself.
2. Trump took office for 100 days. In an hour-long speech, Trump listed many achievements in his 100-day ruling, including nominating and confirming the Supreme Court Justice, increasing employment opportunities, stimulating economic recovery, and amending immigration policies. Fighting terrorism and criminal offences, reducing taxes, reducing federal intervention, restarting trade negotiations, and investing in clean coal.
3. OPEC Secretary General Balkin said that OPEC's overall production reduction rate has reached 94%, and the implementation rate of production cuts reached 98% in March. The goal is to achieve 100% reduction in production; 24 oil-producing countries have not wavered their production commitments; excess crude oil inventories It is steadily declining; it is expected to reach a consensus at the OPEC meeting on May 25.
4. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the new relationship with the UK only appeared after the Brexit negotiations; at the same time, it is meaningless to discuss the Brexit and the future relationship between the UK and the EU; interested in becoming a partner of the UK will be The United Kingdom is treated equally in the negotiations, and the United Kingdom is also expected to treat Germany equally; the Brexit negotiations will involve a lot of work.
5. According to data released by Baker Hughes, the total number of oil wells in the US as of April 28 rose to 697, an increase of 9 from last week and an increase of 15 consecutive weeks. After the data was released, the oil price was trading at US$49.15 per barrel, a decrease of 0.18%.
6. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said on Sunday (April 30) that Greece has made good progress in reform. He made this statement when he talked about the next bailout for Greece. He pointed out: If the Greek government implements all the agreements, the European finance ministers will complete the reassessment on May 22, and will soon issue the next aid. For the Brexit incident, Schaeuble said that "there is no free lunch in the world... Britain should know this."
7. YouGov’s polls for The Sunday Times show that the Liberal Democrats are 11%, the British Independent Party is 6%, and other parties are 8%.
8. British Prime Minister Teresa May said that the trade agreement before leaving the EU was "seeking truth from facts." She said that we should try to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement; the situation in the UK is different from that in other countries; the starting point of the UK is completely different; the Brexit negotiations must deal with trade facilitation and exit costs.
9. European Council President Tusk said in the tweet that the guidelines have been unanimously recognized and that the political task of the Brexit negotiations is ready.
10. German Chancellor Angela Merkel twice expressed her support for Mark Hong. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she supported Mark Hong in the second round of the French presidential election on May 7. This is her second public support for many days.
[Domestic financial information]
★ domestic macro
1. China's manufacturing PMI has fallen from a high of nearly five years and still shows momentum. China's official measure of manufacturing and service industry performance has fallen from multi-year highs. The outlook for sustainable economic growth over the past two quarters has tended to bleak China's April manufacturing purchasing managers' index at 51.2, estimated at 51.7.
2. Fan Yifei, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, attended the “Global RMB Urban Dialogue†and delivered a keynote speech. Regarding China's economic situation, Vice President Fan Yifei pointed out that China's current economy is stable and the majority of indicators are more positive. In the first quarter of this year, China's economy started well, supply-side structural reforms are playing a role, and the new economy and new kinetic energy continue to accelerate growth.
3. As of April 29, 31 provinces and municipalities have all released economic data for the first quarter. Guangdong’s Guangdong Province’s GDP ranks first, while Tibet crosses Chongqing, ranking first with an economic growth rate of 11%. The provinces such as Liaoning and Shanxi, where economic growth has been sluggish, have clearly recovered.
★ domestic stock market
1. In 2016, A-share listed companies achieved a total revenue of 32.60 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%; net profit of 2.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.43%. After eliminating banks and two barrels of oil, A shares achieved a net profit of 1.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.55%.
2. In the first quarter, A-share listed companies achieved a total revenue of 8.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.02%; the total realized profit was 793.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.84%. Among them, the growth rate of GEM's net profit was ahead of the main board, reaching 36.07%.
★ domestic property market
1. According to statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, as of the date of the previous year, the 112 listed real estate enterprises that reported the annual report had a total operating income of 1,299.37 billion, up 28.7% year-on-year; net profit totaled 105.92 billion, up 26.1% year-on-year. The number of net profits rose by 84, accounting for as much as 75%.
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