The fund is stable and has a high probability of cross-season
China Securities Journal
â–¡ reporter Zhang Qinfeng
On the 11th, the central bank continued to suspend open market operations (OMO), with a net return of 40 billion yuan; the market funds slightly converged and the overall situation remained stable. Market participants pointed out that the impact of corporate tax payment will be apparent in the latter half of the week, and the demand for funds in the inter-season will gradually heat up. It is difficult for the funds to continue to loosen at the beginning of the month, but the balance of reverse repurchase has fallen sharply, which has broadened the central bank’s space for foreign exchange. It is also expected to resume growth, and with more fiscal expenditures at the end of the quarter, the probability of a stable cross-season in funding is rising.
Reverse repo continues to stop
On the morning of the 11th, the central bank announced that the current liquidity of the banking system is relatively high, and it can absorb the influence of government bond issuance and the central bank's reverse repurchase, and will not conduct open market operations on September 11. The 40 billion yuan reverse repurchase that expired on the day realized a natural net return.
Since September, the central bank has continued to use the OMO for a net liquidity recovery. As of September 11, since September, the central bank has only carried out reverse repurchase operations of 40 billion yuan, and another MLF operation of 298 billion yuan, achieving a net return of 291.5 billion yuan; in the six trading days, only on September 7 due to the central bank one-time Continue to make MLF expired throughout the month, achieving a net delivery of 128.5 billion yuan.
In view of the central bank's basic tone of maintaining liquidity and the strategy of “shaving peaks and filling the valleyâ€, the central bank's continuous liquidity recovery has justified the current liquidity. Last week, the market funds showed a stable and loose trend. The short-term money market interest rate continued to fall. The representative 7-day pledged repo rate in the interbank market (DR007 fell to 2.80%, and the overnight repo rate (DR001 fell to 3.13). %, down about 20BP from the end of August.
On the 11th, under the continuous “pumping†of the central bank, the market funds slightly converge, but the overall situation is still loose, and the flat position is not too difficult. From the trend of repo rate, on the 11th, DR001 rose 2BP to 2.62%, DR007 rose 4BP to 2.87%, and the inter-season DR021 rose 24BP.
Smooth cross-season probability is not small
The cumulative effect of the central bank's continued net withdrawal began to appear, and into the middle of the month, the seasonal disturbance factor will increase, and the organization began to prepare for the inter-season. The financial fabrics are difficult to renew at the beginning of the month, but many institutions believe that 9 The possibility of a smooth monthly cross-season is not small.
The team of Citic Securities Huang Wentao pointed out that compared with the previous two months, September funds will face a rare period of sustained stability. There are many similarities between the funding situation in September and June. First of all, from the perspective of the potential risk point of funds, both are at the end of the season, facing seasonal factors and regulatory pressures. From the market expectation, there are many pre-markets. Tend to pessimism. However, the market is fully prepared, especially the central bank is more focused on maintaining stability of funds, launching a 28-day reverse repurchase, and the final funding is not tight. Secondly, in the special face of funds, supervision and coordination have been strengthened. The issuance of interbank deposit certificates has shifted from “quantity and price increase†to “quantity increase and price dropâ€. The market’s biggest risk point has been smoothly digested, and the stability of the banking system’s funds is no longer a question. number. Third, judging from the seasonal changes in fiscal deposits, the fiscal expenditures in June and September are relatively strong, and they have obvious positive effects on the funds. Fourth, from the perspective of external monetary policy, the Fed is expected to continue to raise interest rates and shrink the table, but the Fed Policy tightening has little pressure on domestic exchange rates and does not change the continued appreciation of the renminbi in the short term.
Market participants further pointed out that it is expected that the impact of corporate tax payment will begin to appear in the second half of this week, and mid-September is also a key period for the organization to prepare for the inter-season, and the possibility of convergence of funds is greater, but the same deposits are issued. Smooth, it has solved a large uncertainty risk of funds. Under the continuous appreciation of the renminbi, foreign exchange is also expected to provide positive contributions. The fiscal expenditure at the end of the quarter is also worth looking forward to, and the current reverse repurchase balance is running low. OMO gives a lot of room for liquidity support, so the probability of achieving a smooth cross-season is not small.
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
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