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There is still a week left in 2016. Although this year's year is a bit early, there are still more than a month to go to the next year! For the cotton textile industry, this time is really a bit torment! Some cotton textile enterprises have shown a feeling of helplessness and heavy pressure on their shoulders. Especially near the end of the year, the year-end effect appears, and enterprises are even more at a loss, not knowing where to go. Is it really necessary to have a holiday in advance and go home for the New Year? Let's take a look at the specific situation!
Unstable raw material prices and volatile cotton prices
Recently, Zheng cotton is obviously not a little "harmonious", the disk fluctuated greatly, which led to a series of fluctuations in the spot market.
The seed cotton purchase was deserted, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. On December 22, according to Manager Zhao, a person in charge of a 400-type ginning factory in Cangzhou, Hebei Province, the price of seed cotton was lowered by 0.05-0.1 yuan/kg from 20 to 22, at 3.65-3.85 yuan/kg (38-38). 39%, regain rate of 10%). After the downward adjustment, the enthusiasm of cotton farmers to sell was significantly weakened, and the daily purchase volume was 300-400 kg. Recently, the fog was heavier, and the situation of “grain-free rice†was frequent. Not only the acquisition of seed cotton in Hebei, Shandong Dezhou, Binzhou, etc., but also the performance is deserted. According to the person in charge of a ginning factory in Shandong, “In fact, everyone is watching, lest the cotton price fall sharply, and the company will not pay for it.â€
Spot prices fell slightly, and small packets of cotton fell more. As of the 22nd, the price of real estate cotton prices in Hebei Yinzhou, Hengshui, Shandong Dezhou, Binzhou and other places fell by 100-200 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. The price of small packets of cotton fell by a large margin. On December 22nd, according to the person in charge of a small 200 factory in Hebei Province, “there is no interest in small cotton bales recently. At present, there are still over 170 tons of small cotton stocks in the enterprise, and the price has dropped a lot.â€
According to analysis, the price of small cotton fell, first, the downstream manufacturers stopped production and increased production, the downstream demand weakened; second, Xinjiang machine cotton influx into the mainland, occupying a part of the market share; third is the recent Zheng cotton volatility, small ginning factory can not stand Pressure has lowered prices.
The price of cotton yarn is difficult to boost, and the hope of warming up before the year is not big.
Since the end of November, cotton wool raw materials have been greatly increased due to the connection of Chenmian and Xinmian. The rise of crude oil and bulk commodities has led to the increase in polyester staple fiber and the increase in cotton yarn transportation costs. The price of cotton yarn has risen by 500-800 yuan/ton. A few large manufacturers of high-count yarns reported an increase of 1,000 yuan / ton). Downstream weaving, fabrics, clothing links and foreign trade companies have raised prices at the same time and “do not buy themâ€.
At present, Henan, Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Xinjiang and other places, "double 28" Hand Cotton Picker warehouse delivery price of about 16000-16200 yuan / ton; the "double 29 / double 30" Hand Cotton Picker quote about 16300-16500 yuan / ton, In mid-December, the callback was 200-300 yuan/ton; while the 1.4D*38mm polyester staple fiber was quoted at 8450-8500 yuan/ton, which was 500 yuan/ton higher than that in September-October . Therefore, textile companies have said that in the past half a year, the cotton yarn under 40S has basically no profit or even loss, and the finished product inventory of cotton mills has shown a moderate upward trend. So what causes the yarn price to go up?
First, the dyeing fee has risen sharply, and the profits of the weaving factory, the garment factory and the trading company have been swallowed up. The larger the previous order, the longer the delivery time, the greater the loss, the cloth factory can only pass the risk to the upstream spinning mill. It is understood that due to the increase in the monitoring and auditing of pollution control and sewage discharge by relevant state departments, the printing and dyeing enterprises that fail to meet the standards will be suspended and rebuilt, and the backward production capacity will be directly eliminated. This will affect Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, Hebei and Shandong. The overall dyeing and finishing costs of the other places rose by 0.50-0.60 yuan / m, and the printing and dyeing factory orders were generally extended to mid-February. After the order was rushed, additional orders were required to increase the price. The orders of cloth factories and garment factories quickly turned from profit to loss. In order not to lose money or reduce losses, you can only "get out of the body" by "squeezing and pressing down";
Second, the port outside the yarn "pillows", especially India and Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam and other yarns into the Chinese market. According to the survey, as of the end of December, China’s main port bonded cotton yarns were about 9.2-9.5 million tons (including a small number of cloth factories or intermediate purchasers but not out of the goods), mainly in India, Vietnam, Pakistani yarn; and recently The contracted shipping price of Indian C21S and C32S yarns arriving in Hong Kong is generally between 2.45-2.50 USD/kg and 2.58-2.62 USD/kg (CNF price). The cost after customs clearance is 700-1000 yuan/ton lower than the domestic yarn price; Because the domestic cotton prices in India and Pakistan are lower than 5,000 yuan/ton in China, the profit margin and competitiveness of the yarn mills are stronger. Cotton yarn traders in Qingdao, Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang and other places report that the inquiry and shipment of imported cotton yarns have been relatively fast since November, and the C20S-C32S yarns and C32S/2, JC32/2 and other high-grade or jet and rapier yarns are better. Once the price of domestic yarn rises again, the difference between inside and outside reaches 1000 yuan/ton, then the yarn market of C32S and below will be handed over to the imported yarn;
Third, near the end of the year, textile and clothing enterprises are mainly inventories, and there is great pressure on liquidity and repayment. By convention, more than a month before the Spring Festival, cotton, cotton textiles, and clothing companies enter the repayment bank in general with the principle of “first repaying loansâ€, settlement materials fees, and the rhythm of workers’ wages and bonuses. Discounts are among the top, so the price of cotton yarn is equal to “self-seeking deadâ€. Recently, some small and medium-sized spinning mills and weaving factories in Shandong and Hebei have taken the lead in price cuts. Most domestic enterprises will follow suit, and the tightening of funds is the “common disease†of textile mills before the holiday;
There are too many unknown factors in the year, and the textile enterprises are confused.
Recently, I have learned about some cotton textile enterprises in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin. Everyone has shown a feeling of helplessness and heavy pressure on the shoulders. Especially near the end of the year, the year-end effect appears, and enterprises are even more at a loss. I don’t know where to go.
First, the government is fighting hard and fighting the pool fish. On December 22, a person in charge of a 100,000 spindle textile enterprise in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, said that since the beginning of this month, their factory has reduced 20,000 spindles. As of December 19, the government has asked them to reduce another 20,000 spindles, and the production capacity has dropped by 40% to cope with the current pollution. Red alert level one response. Due to severe sputum pollution in most areas of Hebei in the near future, the government has attacked heavily, and the large factories have limited production of 20-40%. The small factories are scattered, chaotic, and unconditionally shut down, which brings great pressure on corporate finance and orders. On December 22, a cotton mill in Baoding stated that there is still a large order in hand, and the company stopped production and could not complete it on time.
Second, the issue of funding at the end of the year is highlighted, and companies are stretched. There are several main aspects of recent funding issues:
1, the payment is difficult to return. In the early stage of the sale of cotton yarn, the company has recently recovered the arrears from downstream manufacturers, but most of the replies received are “wait a second timeâ€. Even the manufacturers of grey cloths directly said that they “have no moneyâ€. If they want to return the goods, they can only take the gray cloth or towels and fabrics. Some manufacturers are forced to agree to get back some of the credits, but the losses are great.
2. The worker asks to pay the salary. It is understood that many textile mills owe workers wages in the second half of this year, and some enterprises owe wages for 2-3 months and cannot be settled. A factory in Binzhou, Shandong Province said that it still owes workers one and a half months of wages. They borrowed them all the time and only got together these two days, but I don’t know where to borrow next month.
3. The raw materials cannot be purchased. Since upstream manufacturers and cotton merchants all require the cash settlement of textile enterprises this year, they are allowed to pick up the goods. This is difficult for many textile enterprises. Due to the shortage of funds, the raw materials of enterprises have been stretched, and some production lines have to be maintained for a short period of time.
Edited
Overall, the cotton spinning market of the year was a bit "chaotic." The upstream cotton market is volatile, the downstream cotton yarn market is in a bad position, the cost is upside down, and it is nearing the end of the year. The funding problem will also be a big mountain on the top of the enterprise. It is really difficult to do a lot. In this market, many small textile enterprises have begun to suspend production. A slightly larger textile enterprise has also selectively shut down some production lines. After all, it is about to celebrate the New Year. Everyone wants to go home safely and well. year.
We believe that this wave of market conditions is due to the recent pressure on environmental protection. On the other hand, in the futures market, the flow of funds will be more frequent before the year, which will easily cause a temporary chaos in the spot raw materials market. Be cautious.
Source of information: China Cotton Network
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