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â–¡ reporter Wang Hui
After the fund's tightness has been significantly eased since mid-week last week, this Monday (August 15th), the interbank market generally maintained a stable state of funds, but overnight lending was still slightly tight. Analysts said that the central bank's total regulation will still be based on the liquidity situation, and the short-term market funds are expected to remain in a generally stable pattern.
The open market is now 80.5 billion net delivery
On Monday, the central bank launched a 13-day reverse repurchase operation of 130 billion yuan, and the winning bid rate continued to be flat at 2.25%. Considering that the reverse repurchase expires at 125 billion yuan, the central bank bill expires and expires. The market achieved a net investment of 80.5 billion yuan in a single day, which is the largest single-day fund net investment in more than half a month.
The overall money market continued to remain stable yesterday. The weighted average interest rates (deposit institutions) of pledged repo with banks at night, 7 days, 14 days and 1 month were 2.01%, 2.33%, 2.65% and 2.70% respectively. The mainstream overnight and 7-day varieties were flat, and the 14-day and 1-month repurchase rates both rose by 2 basis points.
According to the data from the DM financial peer quotation platform, as of 16:00 on the 15th, the DM platform offline deposits and deposits recorded a record of about 1.73, maintaining the level of last Friday and the demand balance in each period. Traders said that the supply and demand of funds had tightened slightly in the morning, but gradually improved in the afternoon. Overall, the current state of funding is generally stable.
Short-term funds fabric worry-free
For the short-term tightening of market funds in the first half of last week, Guoxin Securities analyzed that the central bank maintained a net return in the open market in early August. As of August 11, the open market had a total of 145 billion yuan. In the case of a low reserve rate (expected to be around 1.7% in July), the net return of the open market has made the funds face tightly from 8th to 10th. However, with the release of funds from the central bank in the past two days, the overall funding situation is returning to a loose and stable. Taking into account the central bank's attitude toward maintaining a stable fund, the phased tightness of funds in early August was mainly due to the net withdrawal of the open market. It can be expected that the central bank's capital will be increased in the future.
Shen Wanhongyuan and other institutions also pointed out that the short-term market capital is expected to remain in a generally stable pattern, and the central bank's monetary policy will be based on economic and liquidity conditions.
It is worth noting that in the context of the July financial data being significantly worse than market expectations, the market's expectations for monetary easing have also increased. Haitong Securities believes that the growth rate of M2 in July dropped sharply, the new social financing fell sharply, and the credit also dipped sharply. Only the mortgage loan grew rapidly. Considering that the weakening of investment consumption has not changed, the downward pressure on the economy still exists, which will mean that the neutral monetary policy is facing a test, and monetary easing is expected to heat up again in the short term.
The analysts of the DM financial peer quotation platform further stated that with the pressure of RMB depreciation slowing down and the decline in credit and social growth, the market's expectation of lowering interest rate cuts has indeed warmed up again. In the current market, the relatively loose demand for funds is relatively high, and the operation of the central bank on reverse repurchase and MLF will have a direct impact on whether it needs to adopt a “more accommodative monetary policyâ€.
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